Analysts predict a moderate growth of the pharmaceutical market for 2017

The fragile stability

According to IMS representative head Nikolai Demidov, fragile stability - a key feeling that characterizes 2016.

"The stabilization and subsequent growth - this is what the government says cautiously. Nevertheless, we believe in the future of low-key, and a little optimistic. It is expected that the economic recovery will go very slowly, which means that the industry will not be powerful spurt in growth rates ", - he said.

According to IMS data, in 2016 the pharmaceutical market grew by 9% in ruble terms by 2% in units. Also last year, analysts noted a sharp reversal in the retail segment in the direction of recovery of consumption.

According to Nikolai Demidov, the market developed by companies that are not included in the TOP10, in addition to last year completely changed representation of drugs, which are the basis of the budget segment. It happened not only due to the replacement of imported drugs by domestic but also by introducing new products, including the innovative segment.

"The general conclusion - the retail market has shown strong growth and continued to grow. Budget segment in terms of growth, after a surge in 2015, have stabilized, "- said Nikolai Demidov.

The key trends of 2016, according to IMS opinion, are: reduction of inflation on drugs, the boom of local generics and OTC products.
In its forecasts for 2017 IMS careful, Nikolai Demidov said that the figures are likely to change. Forecast for today: the market will rise to 7% in retail, and about 2% in gossegmente.

Retail comes to life

According to analyst firm AlphaRM, the pharmaceutical market in 2016 (excluding supplements and complementary range of 

"The growth of the European and American currency, unfortunately, no. As a result of years of market shows a drop in the region of 2%, "- said General Director AlphaRM Anna Ermolaeva. She added that the results of 2016 the volume of the market of dietary supplements and complementary range of 257 billion rubles.

In consolidated terms gossegment showed growth of 4.4%. ALPHARM predicts slight growth of this segment in the next year.
The forecast for 2017: growth of the market at the level of 6%.

According to Director General of DSM Group Sergei Shulyak now have the confidence in tomorrow. According to DSM Group estimates, in 2016 the pharmaceutical market showed an increase of 6.4%, its volume - 1 trillion 339 billion rubles. including parapharmaceuticals. Packing - weak growth of 3%.

Anticipating the forecast for 2017, Sergei Shuljak said: "The main thing - to understand what is happening. And there is something that can be called the stabilization of the crisis. Negative situation has its own stability. There are about understanding what rules we play in 2017. Miracles do not promise, falling too. " Thus, the forecast for 2017 from DSM Group - market growth of 9%, in packages from zero to 2%.

Despite the fact that all the analysts in their forecasts have high hopes for retail, ASNA CEO Alexander Shishkin noted that in fact retail is going through hard times. And speaking about the development of the pharmacy market, he stressed that in the coming years will enter an active phase development trend of pharmacy chains own logistics. According to Alexander Shishkin, it will be fundamental that much "reshape" the pharmaceutical market.

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